Week Ending 8/11/2024

Well, we closed the week basically flat and for that I am thankful. I was scared the sell off was going to continue past Monday, but thankfully investor panic halted. The S&P even produced its largest daily jump since November of 22 on Thursday.

Monday was scary as it contributed to the 6% correction the S&P has seen since its all time high of 5,667 on July 16th. This has mainly been due to the sustainability of economic growth and I believe a larger than realized factor is election uncertainty. Global equities tumbled on Monday with the Nikkei(Japans stock index) falling over 12% with a fluctuating yen. The market somehow came back later in the week and we experienced the Great Depression of our generation in just a few days. Jobless claims were better than expected and fell by 17,000 signaling a not so weak labor market.

I don’t believe the panic is over and investors will likely be looking for any other reason to panic. I am still thinking there will be a rate cut in September and that this week s market performance will not have had an impact on that. Im beginning to think about ways to profit off of this rte cut aside from our IWM calls and may begin to take a look at bank stocks and see who has played this rate environment properly. More on that later.

If you tailed our plays from this past week you would have done alright based on conviction. Last weeks degeneration plays were SHOP(27%) and HIMS(-9%) calls and ABNB(-10%), UBER(16%) and SOUN(5%) puts.

Let’s talk about what we are thinking for the upcoming week. I am expecting the market to be relatively flat while investors sit on the sideline to see what the next move will be.

There is really not much to grab at here. I think HD and DE are tried and true stocks that will always be around and I am expecting positive earnings, but I don’t believe there will be enough implied volatility to really profit off of a call. BABA is going to do something weird per usual, but this Chinese company is going to fall sooner or later.

Degen Play: BABA puts

NVDA is set to report earnings on the 28th and I believe in anticipation of that the stock will begin to move in a positive direction so I am going to try and find a good entry point to load up on calls this week and reasses what to do right before earnings.

Degen Play: 8/30 NVDA 104 calls

It was not much but, that is all for now folks.